Stacy prognosticates on the likelihood of Sarah Palin jumping into the GOP Presidential primaries. He doesn’t think so and gives his reasons why;
Expecting restraint and self-awareness from Andrew Sullivan is a doomed hope, of course, but it is interesting to see that Sully’s PDS has continued long past the point where any serious observer believes Palin will run for president in 2012.
This reality — that the clock has run out on any realistic prospect of a Palin 2012 campaign – is one I hesitate to mention, for fear of offending those of her supporters who continue to hold out hope that Palin will mount a last-minute blitz campaign for the White House. While I don’t doubt that Mama Grizzly could do that, I have seen no indication that she will do that, and have been puzzled by her refusal to say definitively that she won’t do that.
Consider this: With all the assets at his disposal, Texas Gov. Rick Perry spent more than two months building the campaign machinery necessary to officially launch his presidential campaign in mid-August. So if Palin were to begin such an effort tomorrow — and there is no tangible evidence she’s planning anything of the kind — the earliest she could jump into the 2012 race would be mid-October, by which time many of those grassroots volunteers who might have supported her will have already committed to other campaigns.
By continuing to keep alive a tiny glimmering hope of her 2012 candidacy, long after the point the whole “testing the waters” time-frame has passed its sell-by date, Palin is setting up her True Believers for a bitter disillusionment whenever the time comes for her to officially admit that she’s not running.
I don’t know Stacy, you’re a pretty astute reporter and the job you did during the Iowa Straw Poll was tremendous and better by far then any other news source, but I think Palin is going to make her decision when she’s ready and won’t be pushed into making an announcement by the MSM or by political pundits.
But I do stand ready to eat my words if you turn out to be right.